European birthrates, immigration, and the future

The IHT has an interesting three part series on falling European birthrates and what it means (hint: more immigration and a huge shift in the level of social services).

Because Europe handles assimilation and integration fairly poorly, immigration cannot solve Europe's problem. While opening the gates will keep Europe populated, it will no longer be the Europe we know. In any case, Europe is going through an anti-immigrant backlash, making more immigration increasingly unlikely.

From part one:

[...] Birthrates have reached a historic and prolonged low in European countries, from Italy and Germany to Poland and the Czech Republic, straining pension plans and depleting the work force across the Continent.

The number of elderly already exceeds the number of young people in many countries, and the European Union's executive arm, alarmed by the trend, estimates that the bloc will have a shortfall of 20 million workers by 2030 if the low birthrates persist.

Immigration from non-European countries, already highly contentious across the EU, would not be sufficient to fill the gap even if Europe's relatively homogenous countries were willing to embrace millions of foreign newcomers, experts say.

"You just can't integrate so many people," said Katharina von Schnurbein, the EU spokeswoman for employment and social affairs. "It is a very sensitive issue." [...]

Perhaps the old communists in eastern Europe had the right idea by providing significant quality of life incentives for married couples with children, as did the ex-Czechoslovakia:

In Prague, the only way a young couple could be allocated an apartment was to wed and have a child [....]

Europe excels at such social manipulations; France already provides some incentives, and Germany is trying some out.

Part two zeroed in on Genoa, an Italian city with one of the lowest birth rates in Europe, and a foretaste of what is to come:

[...] Government efforts to reverse the trend are not working. Cash payments for births, for example, have failed to inspire a leap in fertility rates, and immigration, which might help counteract the population decline, is generating new problems.

Here, as in much of Europe, immigrants are having more children than others and they have kept Genoa's population from imploding. But many Genovese are beginning to feel that the city is no longer theirs: 50 percent of the students in many schools in the old city are of foreign parentage, a situation that is producing simmering resentment. [...]

Even basic services we all take for granted will soon be at risk:

Over time, the decisions of young people to delay or forgo having children have had a ripple effect, changing the texture of Italian society and its values. Courtyards from Rome to Naples, once filled with children, have fallen silent. Economists say communities in time will struggle to find enough younger workers for certain tasks: police officers to enforce the law, ambulance workers and nurses to keep hospitals staffed, dock and factory workers to keep the economy going. [....]

Part three examines how Spain is welcoming immigrants from its former colonies. In this regard Spain is fortunate. Its colonies adopted its language, culture and religion. Nations like France and England with former colonies aren't so fortunate. The article also tackles the biggest problem for European immigration: the almost total lack of assimilation.

[...] In Europe, Spain has been spared the worst consequences of extraordinarily low birthrates, at least for now, by a massive influx of immigrants who have helped fuel the country's economic expansion.

There were 3.5 million immigrants in 2005, up from 900,000 in 2000, according to the Spanish National Statistics Institute. By far the greatest number were from Latin America, and so meshed naturally with Spain's language, religion and culture. [...]

But experts agree that immigration is unlikely to provide a major solution for Europe's fertility woes.

"Immigration is the least predictable factor in the population debate - the wild card," said Tomas Sobotka of the Vienna Institute of Demography. "If Europe is to rely on immigrants to help solve its birth problem, it needs to get a lot better at integration." [...]

Countries that accept large-scale immigration tacitly accept a new demographic future: Today 18 percent of the Canadian population is foreign-born, and the majority of people in Toronto and Vancouver will be of non-European origin within 10 years, Reitz said. If high immigration rates continue, 40 percent of Spain's population may be foreign- born by 2050, Sandell said.

Such shifts would not be politically acceptable in much of Europe, experts say. The European Commission, which issued its first "Green Paper" on Europe's population dilemma last year, concluded that Europe could not absorb nearly enough immigrants to make up for an estimated shortfall of 20 million laborers by 2030.

Europe is clearly in a no win situation. Apart from Spain, immigrants are for the most part of an utterly different culture, with little incentivew to assimilate thanks to Europe's generous benefits programs. Yet, its birthrate is so pitifully low that they must bring in new workers in order to keep its current social services running.

End result: Hello, Eurabia.

One solution: reduce the level of government intervention. Lower taxes, raise the retirement age, eliminate many of the employment safeguards that make hiring such a risk for businesses.